Pre-election polls for the 2006 election in Peru

Pre-election polls consistently showed that one candidate (Flores) was pairwise-preferred over each of the other two frontrunners. Specifically, pollees asked about a head-to-head contest (hypothetical second round) indicated they preferred Flores>Humala by about a 55-to-45 margin, and Humala>Garcia, by a slight margin (or some sources instead had Garcia>Humala by a slight margin, e.g. from the Miami Herald of 10 Apr 2006: "Pre-election polls had shown that Flores would be favored over Humala to replace outgoing President Alejandro Toledo, who cannot succeed himself. But Garcia had little or no advantage against Humala in the pre-election polls.")

Here is a table copied from Wikipedia showing the last 8 polls before the election concerning the question of how voters would vote in three hypothetical head-to-head 2-candidate runoff elections:

Date of Poll Poll-Agency Cite Humala V Garcia Humala V Flores Garcia V Flores
19 Mar 2006 UAP [92] 39.5 % - 29.5 % 38.8 % - 38.8 % 28.2 % - 41.2 %
22-24 Mar 2006 Apoyo [93] 42 % - 39 %
(52 % - 48 %)
40 % - 47 %
(47 % - 53 %)
35 % - 46 %
(43 % - 57 %)
23-25 Mar 2006 Conecta [94] 41 % - 33 % 39 % - 41 % 31 % - 41 %
24-26 Mar 2006 PUCP [95] (53 % - 47 %) (45 % - 55 %) (41 % - 59 %)
24-26 Mar 2006 UL [96] 43.9 % - 36.7 % 41.3 % - 46.6 % 31.5 % - 48.0 %
27-31 Mar 2006 Apoyo [97] 39 % - 37 %
(51 % - 49 %)
38 % - 46 %
(45 % - 55 %)
32 % - 45 %
(42 % - 58 %)
27-31 Mar 2006 CPI [98] (49.7 - 50.3 %) (44.9 % - 55.1 %) (41.5 % - 58.5 %)
5 Apr 2006 UL [99] 37.7 % - 41.3 % 37.3 % - 48.6 % n/a

(Garcia won the official runoff versus Humala after Flores was eliminated.)


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